內容大鋼
本書試圖構造一個經濟發展方式投入產出模型，把需求結構、要素投入以及產業結構納入統一的分析框架，以行業部門為載體，通過對中國42個行業經濟發展方式投入產出模型各種投入要素的產出係數進行計量估計，對我國的經濟發展方式進行考察，最後以主導產業的選擇為切入點來探索中國經濟發展方式轉變和高質量發展的路徑。本書計量結果顯示，未來中國的主導產業，通訊電子和服務業具有較大發展潛力。通訊電子信息產業的創新可塑性很大，同時其巨大的國內市場可以拉動內需和帶動就業，而且它也是資源節約和環境友好的，通訊電子信息產業也具有較強的產業關聯作用，可以廣泛滲透到國民經濟的各個部門。服務業資源和資本節約、環境友好、內需導向、有利於擴大就業的特點同樣應該當作國民經濟的重點。社會福利及社會保障服務業是我國面臨人口老齡化形勢下應該大力發展的行業，它將是中國未來新的經濟增長點。
作者介紹
吳金鐸|責編:曹亞豪
吳金鐸，女，湖北武漢人，經濟學博士，應用經濟學流動站出站博士后。復旦大學發展研究院兼職研究員。曾在《世界經濟研究》PhysicsProcedia等國內外雜誌公開發表中英文學術論文數篇，部分被中國人民大學《複印報刊資料》全文轉載。在《環球時報》（GlobalTimes）、英國《金融時報》（FT中文）、《國際金融報》等報刊發表30余篇專業評論，財新專欄作家。參與「Shang－haiatCenterStage：TheFreeTradeZoneandtheInternationalFinancialCenter?《「十二五」時期促進中部崛起若干問題研究》等三部中英文專著的撰寫。曾作為主研人參與亞洲開發銀行技術援助中國項目（TA7192－PRC）。撰寫國務院政策研究室信息研究司內參、上海市政府自貿區內參，部分獲得重要領導批示。
目錄
Chapter 1 Transformation Dilemma
1.1 Intemal Contradictions and Extemal Shocks
1.1.1 Past rapid growth and high quality outlook
1.1.2 The central committee's important exposition on the economic development mode since reform and opening-up
1.1.3 Difficulties in changing China's traditional economic development mode
1.1.4 Industrial permutations & combinations and economic development mode transformation
1.2 Intension and Extension of Economic Development Mode
1.2.1 Literature reviews of economic growth mode and economic development mode
1.2.2 Types of economic development modes
1.2.3 The argument about the way to realize the transformation of economic development mode
1.3 Industrial Priority and Industrial Combination
1.3.1 Criteria for industry priority
1.3.2 Relations between leading industries and corresponding industries
1.3.3 Industrial priority and benchmark of industrial arrangement and combination
1.3.4 Summary of selection methods of leading industries
1.4 Research Route, Methods and Innovations
1.4.1 Research guidelines and framework
1.4.2 Innovations and shortcomings of this book
Chapter 2 Theoretical Origins of Leading Industries and Development Modes
2.1 The Origin of Industrial Policy in Western Classical Economics
2.1.1 Adams's view of economic development and industrial priorities
2.1.2 David Ricardo's economic development theory and industrial priority
2.2 Relevant Theory of Leading Industry and Economic Development
2.2.1 The development for law of Petty industry
2.2.2 The evolution of industrial structure
2.2.3 Hoffman and Yuke Iwatani's industrialization theory
2.2.4 Chenery's evolution theory of leading industries
2.2.5 Rostow's theory on leading industry
2.2.6 Helchman's "Unbalanced Growth Theory
2.3 Summary of This Chapter
Chapter 3 Economic Development Model and Empirical Study--Based on Input-output Framework
3.1 Basic Ideas of Input-output Model Design for Economic Development Mode
3.1 .I Equilibrium of input-output table of economic development mode in industrial level
3.1.2 Data sources and industrial classification
3.2 Correlation Coefficient of Input-output Model of Economic Development Mode
3.2.1 Induced coefficient of domestic demand
3.2.2 Import and export inducement
3.2.3 Investment multiplier
3.2.4 Employment coefficient
3.2.5 Energy consumption coefficient
3.2.6 Environmental emission coefficient
3.2.7 Technology spillover
3.3 EmpiricalAnalysis of Input-output Efficiency of Economic Development
3.3.1 Stochastic frontier production function setting
4.3 Comparison and Review of Existing Leading Industry Selection Schemes
4.3.1 Program of Chinese academy of social sciences
4.3.2 Former national planning commission program
4.3.3 Development research center program of the State Council
4.4 Selection of Leading Industries and Review of Industrial Policies
4.4.1 Relevant policies to support key industries during the ninth five-year plan
4.4.2 The focus industries and related policies during the tenth five-year plan
4.4.3 Key industries during the eleventh five-year plan
4.4.4 Changes in industrial policies from the ninth five-year plan to the eleventh five-year plan
4.5 Experiences on Leading Industries and Economic Development Mode
4.5.1 Cases from the USA
4.5.2 Cases of Japan
4.5.3 Cases from Germany
4.5.4 Cases of South Korea
4.6 Summary of This Chapter
Chapter 5 Current Situation and Future Prospects of China's Economic Development Mode
5.1 Analysis of the Contents of China's Economic Development Mode
5.1.1 Elements and structures of China's economic development
5.1.2 Analysis of the industrial structure of China's economic development
5.1.3 Analysis of demand structure of China's economic development
5.2 An Analysis of China's Leading Industries--Based on China's Real Estate Industry
5.2.1 The background of the prosperity of China's real estate industry
5.2.2 The current status of China's real estate market
5.2.3 Causes for the prosperity of China's real estate industry as a pillar industry
5.3 Prospect of China's Real Estate Market and Outlook of Future Leading Industries
5.3.1 The measurement of the bubble in China's real estate market
5.3.2 The prospect of China's real estate industry and the outlook of the leading industry in the future
Chapter 6 Policy Suggestions on the Development of Leading Industries and the Change of Economic Development Mode in China
6.1 Principles for Developing Leading Industries and Changing the Mode of Economic Development
6.1.1 Grasp the opportunities for leading industries replacement
6.1.2 Coordinating leading industries and supporting industries
6.1.3 Strengthen government guidance on the basis of market regulation
6.2 Suggestions on Transforming the Mode of Economic Development
6.2.1 Electronic information industry
6.2.2 Strategic emerging industries
6.2.3 Promoting the integration of services and other industries
Conclusions
References
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