內容大鋼
本書深刻把握智庫科學發展的總體趨勢，總結智庫研究的共性特徵和存在的突出問題，從外循環、內循環、「十個關鍵問題」和方法集工具箱四個層次構建智庫雙螺旋法理論體系，重點圍繞智庫問題的解析、智庫問題牽引下的情景分析、智庫問題研究的不確定性分析、智庫問題研究的政策模擬分析、智庫研究的循環迭代、DIIS與MIPS的耦合關係、智庫研究的專家組織與管理、人機結合的智庫問題研究支持系統、客觀分析與主觀判斷的結合、智庫產品質量管理等方面展開文理融合、理實融通的論述，標志著智庫理論研究已從智庫研究範式走向智庫理論方法並正在走向智庫科學體系。
本書可為政府部門、科研機構、高等院校、企業等從事決策咨詢研究、戰略研究、政策研究、智庫理論方法研究的相關人員和對智庫感興趣的廣大讀者提供重要參考。
作者介紹
潘教峰|責編:常春娥
潘教峰，現任中國科學院科技戰略咨詢研究院院長，研究員，博士生導師，中國發展戰略學研究會理事長，中國科學技術法學會副會長。中國科技評估與成果管理研究會副理事長，全國科技評估標準化技術委員會副主任委員。國務院政府特殊津貼專家，全國政協參政議政人才庫特聘專家。聯合國教科文組織國際科學和技術戰略研究與培訓中心（CISTRAT）理事。主要研究方向為科技戰略、創新政策、智庫科學與工程。先後主持60余項國家級決策咨詢、政策研究、戰略規劃課題。主筆學術文章、研究報告和政策建議200余篇，合著、主編專著10余部。
目錄
Preface
Part Ⅰ An Overview of the Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks
Chapter 1 Connotation and Development of Think Tanks
1.1 Connotation and Functions of Think Tanks
1.2 Construction and Development of Think Tanks
1.3 Practice of High-end Think Tank Construction in China and the Future Development
References
Chapter 2 Theory Structure of the Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks
2.1 Main Content of the Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks
2.2 Ten Key Issues of the Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks
2.3 Four-layered Model of the Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks
2.4 Summary
References
Chapter 3 Theoretical Value and Significance of the Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks
3.1 Promoting the Six Transitions in Think Tank Research
3.2 Building an Academic Foundation for Think Tank Research
3.3 Providing Input and Directions for the Construction of the Think Tank Discipline
3.4 Summary
References
Part Ⅱ The Key Issues of the Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks
Chapter 4 Decomposition of Think Tank Problems
4.1 Defining the Problem
4.2 Describing the Problem
4.3 Constructing the Framework
4.4 Formation of the Sub-problem Set
4.5 Case Study
4.6 Summary
References
Chapter 5 Scenario Analysis of Think Tank Problems
5.1 The Importance of Scenario Analysis in the Study of Think Tank Issues
5.2 The Role of Scenario Analysis in Think Tank Research
5.3 Key Elements of Scenario Analysis and Its Methods
5.4 Processes of Scenario Analysis and Its Functions in the DIIS Framework
5.5 The Role of Scenario Analysis in the Realization of MIPS Objectives
5.6 Summary
References
Chapter 6 Uncertainty Analysis in Think Tank Problem Study
6.1 The Connotation of Uncertainty
6.2 Uncertainty in Think Tank Problems and the Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks
6.3 Uncertainty Analysis Methods for Think Tank Problems
6.4 Summary
References
Chapter 7 Policy Simulation Analysis in Think Tank Problem Research
7.1 Policy Simulation in Think Tank Problem Research
7.2 Advances in Policy Simulation for Problem Research in Think Tanks at Home and Abroad
7.3 Decomposition of Policy Simulation Process on the Basis of the DIIS Process Convergence Method and the MIPS Logic Layer Method
7.4 Representative Methods of Policy Simulation in Think Tank Problem Research
7.5 Summary
References
Chapter 8 Cyclic Iteration of Think Tank Research
8.1 Overview of the Cyclic Iteration in Think Tank Research
8.2 Triggering Situations and Stages Involved in the Cyclic Iteration of the Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks
8.3 Cyclic Iteration Process of the Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks
8.4 Case Study
8.5 Summary
References
Chapter 9 DIIS and MIPS Coupling
9.1 Characteristics of DIIS-MIPS Coupling
9.2 Structure of DIIS-MIPS Coupling
9.3 DIIS-MIPS Coupling in Research Practice
9.4 Summary
References
Chapter 10 Organization and Management of Think Tank Experts
10.1 The Role of Think Tank Experts in Think Tank Research
10.2 Expert Functions and Knowledge Characteristics
10.3 Expert Selection
10.4 Expert Participation
10.5 Summary
References
Chapter 11 Human-machine Research Support System in Think Tank Research
11.1 Necessity for the Construction of Decision Support System in Think Tanks
11.2 Main Types of Decision Support Systems in Think Tanks
11.3 Research Hotspots of Think Tank Decision Support Systems
11.4 Architecture of the Decision Support System in the Framework of Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks
11.5 Summary
References
Chapter 12 Combination of Objective Analysis and Subjective Judgment
12.1 The Significance of Combining Objective Analysis and Subjective Judgment
12.2 Concept of Combining Objective Analysis and Subjective Judgment
12.3 Principles, Criteria and Methods of Combining Objective Analysis and Subjective Judgment
12.4 The Application of Combined Objective Analysis and Subjective Judgment
12.5 The Progress of Combining Objective Analysis and Subjective Judgment in Different Domain Perspectives
12.6 Summary
References
Chapter 13 Product Quality Management
13.1 Characteristics and Classification of Think Tank Products
13.2 Quality Requirements for Think Tank Products
13.3 Quality Management of Think Tank Products
13.4 Summary
References
[