目錄
1 Scientific Investigation of Continental Earthquakes and Relevant Studies: An Overview Yong-Gang Li, Yongxian Zhang, Zhongliang Wu, Ying Li, and Xiaodong Zhang
References
2 Crustal Deformation and Regional Seismogenic Environment Associated with the 2021 Maduo Mw 7.3 Earthquake Xiaoning Su and Guojie Meng
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Calculation of GNSS Velocity Field and Strain Rate Field
2.2.1 GNSS Observation and Data Processing
2.2.2 Method for Calculating GNSS Strain Rate Field
2.3 Characteristics of Crustal Deformation and Fault Activity of Regional GNSS
2.4 Regional GNSS Strain Accumulation Characteristics
2.5 Co-seismic Deformation Characteristics from Continuous GNSS Observations
2.6 Deformation Characteristics of Station QHMD in the Early Post-Seismic Period
2.7 Distribution Characteristics and Trend Analysis of Great Earthquakes on the Boundary Faults of Bayan Har Block
2.8 Conclusion
References
3 Dense Array Observation and Deep Seismogenic Environment in the Focal Area of the 2021 Maduo Ms7.4 Earthquake, Qinghai, China Lijun Chang, Huili Guo, Pingping Wu, Miaomiao L?, Xuelai Cao, and Laiyu Lu
3.1 Dense Seismic Array Observation
3.2 High-Resolution Earthquake Catalog for the Focal Area of the Maduo Ms 7.4 Earthquake Sequence Based on Deep-Learning Phase Picker and Dense Array
3.2.1 Workflow of Phase Picking, Association, Absolute and Relative Location
3.2.2 The Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Earthquake Sequences
3.2.3 The Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Earthquake Sequences and the Fault Morphology
3.3 Focal Mechanism Solutions of the Maduo Ms 7.4 Earthquake Sequence and Regional Stress Field of Focal Region
3.3.1 Focal Mechanism Solutions
3.3.2 The Stress Field
3.4 Three-Dimensional Fine Velocity Structure of the Upper Crust of the 2021 Maduo Ms7.4 Earthquake
3.5 Variations of Shear Wave Splitting in the Focal Area of the Maduo Ms7.4 Earthquake
3.6 Conclusion
References
4 Seismotectonic Settings and Seismogenic Mechanism of the 2021 Ms6.0 Luxian Induced Earthquake in the Sichuan Basin, Eastern Tibetan Plateau Yapei Ye and Renqi Lu
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Tectonic and Geological Settings
4.3 Focal Mechanisms and Seismicity Relocation
4.3.1 Focal Mechanisms
4.3.2 Seismicity Relocation
4.4 The Ambient Stress Field
4.5 Geological and Seismic Investigation
4.6 Geodetic Observations
4.7 Velocity Structures and the Seismic Distribution Characteristics
4.8 Discussion and Conclusion
4.8.1 Seismogenic Fault of the Luxian Strong Earthquake
4.8.2 Seismotectonic Settings of the Southern Sichuan Basin
4.8.3 Future Perspectives
References
5 Gas Emissions Associated with Strong Earthquakes in the Intersection Area of Longmenshan, Xianshuihe and Anninghe Faults, Southwestern China Yueju Cui, Ying Li, Jianan Huang, and Wan Zheng
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Tectonic Se
5.4.2 Gas Emissions from the Fault Zone and Epicenter Area
5.4.3 Gas Emissions Associated with Strong Earthquakes
5.5 Conclusion
References
6 Operational Aftershock Forecasting Work for Scientific Investigation Activities of China Earthquake Administration in Recent Years Shengfeng Zhang and Yongxian Zhang
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Earthquake Sequences Employed
6.3 Methodology
6.3.1 Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) Model
6.3.2 Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Test
6.3.3 Consistency Test
6.4 Results and Discussion
6.4.1 Temporal Variation of Aftershock Sequence
6.4.2 Forecasting Probability and Occurrence Rate
6.4.3 ROC and Consistency Test with Observations
6.5 Conclusion
References
7 Predictability of the May 12, 2008, Wenchuan Earthquake: Insights from the Perspective of 'Dragon King' Theory and 'Nowcasting' Method Yue Liu, Jiawei Li, Yongxian Zhang, and Zhongliang Wu
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Earthquake Catalogues Used for the Analysis
7.3 Predictability of the Wenchuan Earthquake in the Perspective of 'Dragon King' Theory
7.4 Hazard of the Wenchuan Earthquake in the Perspective of 'Nowcasting'
7.5 Conclusions and Discussion
References
8 Nowcasting Earthquakes with QuakeGPT: Methods and First Results John B. Rundle, Geoffrey C. Fox, Andrea Donnellan, and Lisa Grant Ludwig
8.1 Introduction
8.2 Continuous Time Earthquake Nowcasting with ROC Methods
8.2.1 Method
8.2.2 Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
8.2.3 Nowcasting with California Earthquakes
8.3 Stochastic Simulation: Earthquake Rescaled Aftershock Seismicity "ERAS"
8.3.1 Stochastic Simulations of Seismicity
8.3.2 ERAS: General Approach
8.3.3 Examples of ERAS Catalog Simulations and Comparison with California Data
8.4 Science Transformers: AI Enhanced Time Series Forecasting
8.5 QuakeGPT: A Generative Pretrained Earthquake Transformer
8.5.1 Earthquake Transformers and QuakeGPT
8.5.2 ERAS Earthquake Simulations
8.5.3 Transformer Architecture
8.5.4 Queries, Keys and Values
8.6 Summary and Discussion
Appendix: Building the ERAS Model
References
9 Falsification of Seismic Hazard Assessment (SHA) by Real Earthquakes: The Design Magnitude Mdesign for Neo-deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) Yan Zhang, Paolo Ruggeri, Zhiwei Ji, Changsheng Jiang, Zhongliang Wu, and Giuliano F. Panza
9.1 DSHA and MCE
9.2 Mdesign in NDSHA: The Panza-Ruggeri Law
9.2.1 MCE and Its Clarification
9.2.2 The Safety Factor of Earthquake Magnitude, γEM
9.2.3 The Magnitude Standard Deviation, σM
9.2.4 Principle of Uniformitarianism
9.3 NDSHA Procedures, and the Role of Mdesign
9.4 Falsification of NDSHA Through the Mdesign
9.5 Conclusions and Discussion
References
10 Numerical Investigations and Observations of Waveguide Effects for Multi-layer Fault Damage Zones at Seismogenic Depths Yong-Gang Li
10.1 Introduction
10.2 The Simulation Method
10.3 3-D Finite-Difference Simulations of FZTWs
10.3.1 Simulations of FZTWs for Sources Within the Four-Layer LVWG
10.3.2 Simulations of FZTWs for Sources 2-km Out of the Four-Layer LVWG
10.3.3 Simulations of FZTWs for Sources Beneath the Two-Layer LVWG
10.3.4 Simulations of FZTWs for Sources Within and Out of the Uniform LVWG
10.4 Observations and Simulations of FZTWs from Multi-layered Fault Damage Zones
10.4.1 FZTWS at the Landers and Hect Mine Rupture Zones
10.4.2 FZTWs at the San Andreas Fault Near SAFOD Site
10.5 Conclusion and Discussion
References
11 Detailed Investigation of Seismic Hazardous Areas and Scientific Field Investigation of Earthquakes: A Discussion from the Perspective of Systems Engineering Chaozhong Hu, Ying Li, Pengju Qi, Long Wang, Wenjun Tian, Lingxue Tai, Meihui Wang, Yongxian Zhang, and Zhongliang Wu
11.1 Detailed Investigation of Seismic Hazardous Areas: Current Status
11.2 Detailed Investigation of Seismic Hazardous Areas and Scientific Field Investigation of Earthquakes: The Scientific Significance
11.3 Planning the Detailed Investigation of Seismic Hazardous Areas and the Scientific Field Investigation of Earthquakes
11.3.1 Basic Principles
11.3.2 Priority Works
11.4 Capacity Building for the Detailed Investigat
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